The aviation industry has not returned to stability; it has transitioned into a fundament ally different operating model defined by persistent volatility and fragmentation, as well as structural change.
That’s according to CAPA’s head of analysis Rich Maslen, who shared his thoughts on the sector at the recent CAPA Airline Leader Summit in Berlin. He says aviation is now operating within a permanently unstable global framework.
He cites geopolitical disruptions and airspace closures, as well as fuel price volatility and diverging regional growth patterns.
His comments follow CAPA’s State of the Industry report which compares the current aviation sector to 2019, before C-19, revealing recovery has occurred but challenges remain.
In Oct 2025, passenger and cargo traffic volumes are at 112% of levels seen in Oct 2019, while seat capacity is at 113% of 2019 levels and the number of jets in service is at 110% of pre-pandemic numbers.
. . . Struggles
Areas still struggling post-pandemic include aircraft manufacturing. CAPA’s report shows that Boeing and Airbus deliveries in 2025 were close to 2016 levels, with nine years of growth having been lost.
In fact, the report estimates that 2025’s year-end backlog was around 12 years for commercial passenger aircraft.
As to whether this will improve anytime soon, the report points out that US tariff hikes are impacting on aviation with aircraft production costs and delivery delays to increase. Boeing is likely to be worse affected than Airbus.
Staff are another struggle, with around 2.4 million new aviation personnel needed globally to 2044. So, too, are rising fuel costs, with fuel prices expected to account for around 24% of revenue in 2026 and predicted to potentially rise to 61% of revenue in 2050.
