Global air passenger demand remained under pressure in Sep, although a return to growth in international travel offers some encouragement, shows the latest IATA data.
Worldwide passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, fell 0.5% year-on-year, which was a slight improvement on Aug’s 0.8% contraction. International traffic returned to growth, up 0.4%, while domestic demand weakened further, falling 2.2%.
IATA’s Sep results show that the improvement in international travel was partly offset by weaker domestic markets, particularly in the US, India and Japan.
“…These patterns have more-or-less repeated themselves throughout much of the year, and we can expect this to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices,” says IATA.
. . . Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific airlines recorded 0.5% growth in passenger traffic for Sep, with international demand up 0.7%. However, performance across the region’s major international routes was mixed for the month.
Europe–Asia traffic was a standout performer, up 11.9% year-on-year, while routes between Asia and the Southwest Pacific grew 3.8%. The latter recorded a passenger load factor of 86%, the highest among the major Asia Pacific international route areas.
However, traffic on the North/South America–Southwest Pacific corridor slowed sharply, increasing just 0.4%, compared with 7.1% growth in Aug.
. . . Middle East
The Middle East continued to weigh on global performance, with carriers reporting an 8% decline in passenger traffic. However IATA says this is an improvement on Aug’s 14.6% contraction, as airlines continued to contend with regional disruption. Global passenger traffic excluding Middle Eastern carriers increased 0.3% in Sep suggesting underlying demand is holding up better than the headline figures indicate.
. . . Outlook
Looking ahead, global scheduled seat capacity is forecast to increase 0.6% year-on-year in Oct and 1.5% in Nov, indicating airlines are continuing to add capacity, although growth remains uneven across regions. The global passenger load factor fell 0.3 percentage points to 83.2% in Sep, suggesting airlines are facing a more challenging balance between available seats and passenger demand.
