It’s not just the big ger carriers operating international routes that are being impacted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with a new analysis revealing regional carriers worldwide are also feeling the impact.
OAG analyst John Grant names the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and South Asia as the hardest hit regions for declining capacity.
Using OAG schedules data com paring 27 Apr 2026 filed capacity against the original Feb baseline, Grant says airline capacity in the Middle East is down 34.7% in May, compared to the Feb baseline, with more than one-third of planned capacity no longer in service.
Things are looking up for Jun and Jul, with capacity currently down 9.9% and then 5%, as Grant says air lines are hoping for some resolution to the current issues and retain large parts of their original schedules.
Eastern Europe is the second hardest hit region, he says. These capacity reductions are being driven by significant capacity cuts from Middle Eastern carriers to the region.
May capacity is down 18.3%, with Jun also seeing a drop, albeit just 0.7%, while things are more positive from Jul, with a 2.2% increase in capacity.
Other areas significantly affected by capacity cuts in May are South Asia and Southeast Asia, down 9.9% and 8.3% respectively, as well as Eastern Africa and Upper South America, both down 5.1%.
Locally, Air New Zealand has reduced services on several routes, as has Qantas over in Australia, with Tasman and Pacific Island routes also impacted.
In fact, OAG data shows the Southwest Pacific as being down 3.5% in May compared to planned capacity in Feb, this drop also seen in Jun, though Jul does currently see a rise again, up 1.3%.
Only one regional market shows capacity growth in May; Central Asia is up 10% against Feb. Grant attributes this to Indigo adding nearly 85,000 seats as it continues its expansion into the market.
